الأحد، 21 أكتوبر 2012

The importance of cause-effect analysis in diagnosing and fixing problems


Whether it is machines, a system, human body, social, economical or political problem, the technique of "cause-effect analysis" is an important and powerful tool to bridge the gap between the "symptoms of a problem" and the "true cause(s)" for it.

Just to explain a little bit, let me give two examples.

1-  In electrical systems, When short-circuit happens and melts the fuse, the easiest thing to fix the problem would be to replace the fuse.  If the problem happens again, a "smart" person may use a higher rate fuse and when it does not melt, feels happy that he/she fixed the problem.  If later on, internal wiring burns, or equipment is damaged, he/she would discover that the problem was not fixed but in fact made worse.
 The true smart solution would have been to investigate why the fuse is burning ? and pure  physics says the metal melts because higher current passed through it, and this is the whole wisdom behind using the fuse, to melt, and stop these higher currents from passing into the wiring and burn it, or on to the equipment and damage it ....

The "cause-effect" analysis is the tool and technique to explore and discover what is happening in the system (wiring and equipment) that is trying to draw higher current !  This could be a "mechanical jam" in case of moving things (motors) or a damage in one or more of the equipment.
 
2-  In the human body, headache may happen due to a multitude of reasons, the easy (and lazy) solution would be a tablet of aspirin, but if the headache continues, it would be necessary to find out what is causing the headache.   "Guessing" may be used and it may hit and it may miss. "Trial and error based on assumptions" may also be used, but it is expensive, time consuming and may cause  serious side effects and additional problems that may exceed in damage the original problem

Again here, "cause-effect" analysis is the right tool to investigate, diagnose and find out what is really causing the headache before trying out any specific treatment .

Moving on to society, economy and politics, the model is still the same, we have problems (odd, unexpected/undesired and damaging behavior) leading to serious social/economical/political problems including poverty, corruption, unemployment, depletion of middle layer, bribery, theft, organized crime, murder, drugs, prostitution, ... etc ... etc ... etc.  

What I am suggesting here is that we can/should use the same methodology applying the appropriate "cause-effect analysis tools to dig deep into the issues and reach the real and true causes of these problems, before suggesting or trying to attempt any proposed solution(s) for these problems. 

If not, we may still be replacing fuses or taking aspirin while the issues we are facing are much more serious than that !

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